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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Last 6 weeks of the year Extreme volatility

As we stated already and we all already know that from Sept 1st the market has not been the regular market because there is an excess amount of unnatural "market" of which it is pointless to discuss anymore or speculate. The best one can do is follow the trend, ride the wave, even though the waves may be pretty short or rather broken waves.

It is hard to predict for now but we can talk about periodic or minor trends of day or the week. The ideal is to follow the daily or 60m charts and program very short term trading.
Some days can be so treacherous that it is even harder for a day trader to sustain any successful setups. So best is to remain on sidelines or just do some speculatory overnight or day trades.

For now just quick glance. We see 29th, 1st Dec, 6th and 7th Very volatile or subject to previous days. Rest of the days for now are shaky or some what positive. Frankly it would be wiser to close any longs on Friday high of the day.
Then be watchful one Dec 1st. It can be slightly treacherous. Overall on a very wider view It will be wise to be careful on your long positions from 29th Nov till 8th Dec. From 9th Dec we expect a more stable wave.

Obviously Equities, indexes, Silver and some other commodities are running inverse to USD but not all and Gold may have its own path. Will try to post more specific closer look at the coming days on this blog which will be added as addendum. Kindly post any comment if any or your questions, answers or suggestions for other passing traders.

In all above we are factoring the coming shocking news around FIRST week of DEC. Unless some timely intervention major trouble may come from the UK and EU and also from China. Keep a watch on News on BANKS in EU from next week.

Will try to add some more later

Dec 2

Astral factors show the same trend to continue till 22nd Dec except 4 or 5 down days but the down could be steep if any. Since there are so many State interventions these markets are not following natural patterns so reversals can be sudden.  If it was a natural market the market would reverse around Dec 9th.

A study of EUR shows the trend reversal imminent for next 3 weeks.

Gold : Reaching at a critical level. Any new moves would be very related to news.

 Dec 3


Added new comment system enabling any users, from Disqus, yahoo, open id , twitter but also any other unsigned users. When you post without account you could automatically sign up for disqus when posting just by choosing a pass. 


The advantage of using your signature or login is that you can own your comments and may delete or amend if needed. All are welcome.


I hope to give for some days some not fuzzy clear signals. PLEASE focus on being very nimble in trading and not hold very long term. Short term positions just in time are only way to survive. Of course you can follow the trend that began on Sept 1 but being an unnatural trend its demise or reversal can not be foreseen by anyone. If you are losing money close or reverse your positions.

If you are merely wasting your time thinking and talking of market without focusing on your own performance, your chance of success is dimmer.



If you want to make money let us discuss and do not follow too many ideas or people. Focus and concentrate on a few set of ideas and indicators and you will succeed. Hey I am not saying it to you only but to me myself, Reza and all my friends.  Stop LOSING YOUR MONEY!! Will you?

5 comments:

  1. Astral

    Thanks for your message for the spike in the am for sp120. For the holidays is it better to stay out or long/short

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good Morning Reza

    SPY 120 level is done so expect it to pullback 119 or so. A good trade could be buy at last hour at the LOD and wait for Fri AM for a potential minor gap up.

    As for Monday 29th Expect a gap down.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Astral
    Jay's sites EKG is showing a late day sell off,any thoughts on this

    ReplyDelete
  4. Reza

    I do not see any sell off for now because most of the positions may be carried forward till Fri. Fri may see an up Gap as far as I see. It will be very important to watch the close Friday but Monday is pretty negative day but Tues is interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  5. why dont u add disqus for better discussion

    ReplyDelete

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