After running a continual study for quite some time we can say that it is very easy to detect when there is excessive manipulation in the regular natural flow of markets. It is like healing naturally or forcing the body to ingest chemicals that body may not even digest or react to. The healing will still be done naturally but inducing of chemicals sends a positive note to patient's mind and he probably responds to the chemicals too as a reaction.
Markets are a collective effort and despite all all collective ideas or projects be they peaceful or bringing fanatic ideas about, follow a natural course. When the course is deviated, there is always a sequence that must follow the natural course too, albeit at a cost at times higher if the natural course was adapted.
We can call it quantitative easing, remedial actions or whatever fancy names. Most predictive sciences and including fundamental or technical analysis fails when there is an un-natural action for a consistently long period of time.
Most of us know well the causes and circumstances. We are passing through a slightly delicate time of consolidation as the economy transits from one level to another. While China and a few other players are doing great the longer term, US will prevail by all means. Despite the gloomiest aspects and news all around us, and despite the potential of some critical period ahead, the USA will once again dominate as new technologies will change the scene completely. That is on a slightly longer term period.
Reverting to the stock market and commodities and the USD and several key currencies all moves are related to a few actions that are calculated and they become catalyst to change the course of market.
This is the reason I did not post any blog during these days for it is not worth. Sept was one of the most bullish months by now we all know. October is not going to be very different even though there has to be 2 corrections but they may be minor or steep it will depend on many factors.
The best course of action is to play as per the technicals. I can tell you that I only see a reversal in USD course around after 3rd week of Oct.
Some commodities may change or reverse their course from Monday Oct 11 but the key changes may be expected around between 21st and 25th.
If there are any traders reading we can discuss the course of next 3/4 weeks.
The momentum of Sept for now should follow for coming weeks. Now what happens from 2nd week of Nov may be something wild about which we could talk in a short while.
Hope you can follow the technical charts and keep stop losses on any positions. Going short only makes sense when the indicators are absolutely certain.
Few good people I know who trade regularly are engaged in day trades or very brief swing trades. I am not trading for past few months for now.
If there is need or demand I can post at times day's key hours for day traders.
Read analytical articles of current market scene at
http://seekingalpha.com/author/world-market-pulse
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World Market Pulse is a small team of specialized analysts and traders, focusing on multiple aspects and areas of interest. Our analytical base, in addition to fundamental and Technical factors, does include various other non-traditional and customized indicators, studies and authentic research in collaboration with field experts, real traders and experienced market watchers; that are normally ignored by the mainstream analysts. We specialize in top emerging markets, key commodities and major currency studies along with vital stocks, segments and sub-sectors
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I really like your post you done great jobs. Thanks for sharing valuable information.
ReplyDeleteNew Cars UK
Hey Astral
ReplyDeleteMostly in agreement with your 10/21-25 turn. As we go up I keep pulling things off the table. In a perfect world I see this running into the 19th or 20th then drop into the end of month or early Nov. for a final pop. Does this sound close to your expectations?
Dear Gin
ReplyDeleteYes indeed. 21/24 should be a potential turn however we must keep in mind that due to elections and some other critical issues of economy which we know, there is all force that can be used to keep the market afloat. If you see there is a FAT hand that keep the USD down and Commodities and Stocks are jacked up.
Obviously this bullishness is bit suspicious. Considering the scene best is to keep a watch and keep it very short term.
The perfect world scene may not be there for quite some time.
It is almost certain, unless a miracle, Democrats or rather Obama may see a disaster in Nov elections and there could be a powerful event but overall once that bridge is crossed we are through back on the same path.
I'm done buying pullbacks and consolidation periods. In fact as of tonight's close I'm near flat waiting to see how mid next week plays out. If next week is sloppy maybe the next high comes the week after.
ReplyDeleteAnyone here?
ReplyDeleteLooks like I switched camps just in time. Next pivot could come over the weekend but I'm flat.
Thanks Astral for the SPY to 120 from yesterday's email. It is almost there, what to do next
ReplyDelete