Market 14 July to 19 July

At 2 pm CST or 3 PM EST there could be a last move of today which could be significant if at all.
The market move that was to happen on 14th  did occur on 13th.

WHY? Please know that the move that we project for a day can happen during Frankfurt and London open and thus futures already factor that day with all or major move. Or many times the futures at EU close or just few hours before open, make all move.  Pinpointing a day thus can have a slip. E.g. on the move of 11th may happened on 10th because major move happened on 9th Sunday Futures. Same way 13th carried most move during EU market. That is why day traders or over night traders can lose a lot if they do not factor this potential.

Hence I prefer a short term or swing trade based on a 2 to 4 days move. At times it is smarter to do an overnight move when very sure. In any case without risking something it is hard to gain much.

If there is no move at the close there could be some move on 15th even though 15th should be a very weak day apparently and whatever happens may not be very stable.

What I observe carefully is that the some stocks have or will reach their peak for now. 15th to 19th one could find some good shorts.

There would be a last move on 20th and 21st July which may propel the markets bit up however if you can find some shorts technically ready you could do so on 15th.

If you are very conservative and do not want to risk short around 21/22 July.
UNLESS there is a miracle or heavy duty manipulation you can short and sleep.
If you short on 15th check out on 16th before close. 19th would be a day of certain great boom and then bust perhaps but we can never know so be careful that day.

I will add more details on specific assets later.

Please see addendum and comments on all blogs as this is just an initial comment.

Countries Markets: There are many countries markets peaking and about to tumble. If you want to discuss any particular ETFs comment.

Metals: Metals are at a critical point and one must be careful before any direction entry.

Currencies : The turn around time is coming and it should happen next week. I expect USD to make a move shortly but I do not see it right now.

Shipping/Freight : As you can see Freight and shipping indices are losing their remaining support. Comment to discuss further.

INSIDERS / Manipulations: Obviously each market and each floor has some manipulation. If you think computers only run the business you are living in a paradise of fantasy.

There are interests that move certain key assets to direct the market. But we can see when there is a divergence between natural energy patterns and man made patterns. I always can detect so easily on any day or week. I get alarmed when I see manipulation and stop all.
At times a totally dead market will suddenly revive. The News is not the real factor but that is used as a mile stone or excuse.
Obviously technical charts do factor all that but there are many many factors which are not shown on technical charts and whatever may be your fundamental views, some things always appear as hidden or unseen.

What is done behind the scenes can be responded with not trying to guess tops or bottoms. I suggest and you already know that. It is futile to try to be panicking and entering a market thinking the first morning or evening star is the way to enter. It can be a treachery and it is wiser to wait and see.
You will notice that we always have sufficient time and absolute clear clue when we should take a train.

+ JULY 15

As you saw we had a very weak open. As projected in past few blogs 15th still has some steam and things can happen.

The key hours for day trading CST

July 15, 2010    9:37 AM
July 15, 2010   10:02 AM         
July 15, 2010   10:36 AM
 
July 15, 2010    1:18 PM and 2.04 PM


+ As you see market did move at last hours. Friday will be a volatile day and if you have any longs close them within one hour or so after open following technicals.
If short just stay on.
I think market still has some more secrets left and the early next part is still left as there are two days and half somewhat positive but it can change. It is not wise to go long right now unless you know an asset.

EUR : Eur made a huge turn today perhaps one of the best in months.
If you are in a position overnight you may like to watch Fri. Euro continues to be strong for few more days and it may diverge from the broader market to which it has followed at times.


+  When you suggest any stock or asset on comments. Please know that any indications that are suggested are for short term and it is very important that you follow through technicals or your own analysis and to get an idea for more days please repost a comment.

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July 16 Trading Day


We already projected and you knew it well what was in store. You can see the markets have fallen badly. Overall a very negative day for any asset except just a few commodities, stocks and currencies.

Now if the decline is steep then Monday could open high initially.

Some key hours that may have minor reversals
10.15 am CST
11.30 am CST
12.05 am CST
11.30 am CST
12.50 am CST