If you are an active trader or position investor you must very carefully focus on the coming week and the week after. The week after start 28 June to 2nd July may have slightly different tone and we can analyze it probably next week. Just keep in mind that during that week I see 2/3 slightly positive days but it possible that in a bigger picture they may be minor spikes.
Reading this week :
If you see the daily SPX is giving confusion signals in other words dont know which direction to go. It is however sitting on a certain good support or momentum but this can turn to any side any time. If you see weekly spx shows rising and with upward moment for past 2 weeks.
Technically if SPX crosses 1120 area it can have a bigger potential.
Having said that looking at non-traditional analysis, I clearly see much weakness mostly that will not give much direction except 21st and 23/24th show some weak strength but from past experience such strength is very temporary or rather momentary and dont aggregate to any new momentum.
The eclipse of 26th falls on a Saturday but its impact may not be very solid on the markets as much as the next one of July.
In brief the overall market may be quite weak and one may choose a direction either today or on 21st Monday with some selective assets going with a credit or debit spread put perhaps or some other strategy with more negative bias.
From historical perspective there is a signal that broad market may go up from later part of Monday and rally till Tuesday and or Wednesday and then drop. If you are not interested in extreme risk you could wait for early next week.
If you are seeking a long term plan you could go short on some assets that you follow either today, next week 23rd or on 2nd July. There is going to be pretty negative environment overall. But there are always miracles and sudden shocks so there could be some rally day but overall picture for now is not very bright. I usually have a very upward and positive approach but despite all my optimism when I see negativity or gray areas more or rather lesser light I usually see that markets do not go to any direction. A weak market can be slightly dangerous to work.
We are talking here broader market perspective.
If you have some particular stocks or key stocks of any particular sub-sector/sector please post or comment and I can review them. Usually my reading on individual asset is closer to reality, upon which I am constantly working trying to find correlations.
There are no real crystal balls or ways to see into future except genuine research and non stop comparative studies of past patterns which are necessary to project future.
Yes through certain psychic means we can visualize certain hint of future but in market analysis we can not rely on those kind of faint hints. I do not believe in all that as its a waste.
We need real time clear indicators and these indicators work well on intermediate terms.
The only thing one can do is real research and constantly improving upon the methods and techniques. That is what I have been doing and I find amazing possibilities.
Many commodities are going to reverse coming Monday so be watchful on agri commodities.
+ JUNE 21 2010
Please see comments section for vital comments on trading day/s at the bottom of this blog.
+ Today is going as expected and I wonder how many people will be trapped by the Bullish sentiment. Today evening later things will begin to change and those who buy will be reconsidering their positions but would wait till Tuesday.
+ As suggested if you would like to search for key assets that you know it will be a good day to do so but suggest that you go for downward direction that has more chances. If not wait till 23rd. or July first week. It is wiser not to go long in this period on broad markets.
+ Pl do not hesitate to write on specific assets as things change every day. Since I write mainly on broader markets unless we discuss a specific market, asset or commodity it is hard to pinpoint.
The objective of this blog is that we share quality info that makes sense for all of us. If you win we all win. I just wish to contribute positively and please remind me always as I am stuck with so many things always.
+ JUNE 22 2010
There is absolutely nothing that has changed since last reading.
Please do not risk your portfolio. Read the blog and comments carefully.
This time entail great risks even for day trades.
I moved to http://smartvolume.wordpress.com
-
It was a pain to work with blogspot, yesterday I gave up.
So. here is the link:
http://smartvolume.wordpress.com/
Good luck!
1 year ago
Posts
Thank you
ReplyDeletehey astral...
ReplyDeletespeaking of the weekly charts, the momentum is still to the downside in my opinion. it is trying to relieve the over-sold condition, but the path of least resistance still remains to the downside. The fact that ndx futures closed below it's 13sma on the weekly chart, tells me that we will probably make slightly higher highs on monday or tuesday, but, we will not close a single day near the highs of the day. This will creat some long wicks on the daily charts, and will lead to a very sizeable correction by the weeks end.
For those that follow SPX, I fully anticipate a close below 1040 next week. 1125 being the high target monday or tuesday, i will be positioning myself for a nice ride down...this should be a major move which will continue till mid august. for me the target on SPX is 850 by aug. 12th or so. There may be relief rallies along the way of course which will be tradeable aswell, but, they should be used to short the market again. so nearly a 300 pt drop in less than 2 months.
A break of 843.75 would be very bad news indeed for the markets, so I am looking for 850 to be support for some time...but not forever!
Hope everyone has a great weekend!
Atral, BDI down another 3+% today...outlook does not look good.
ReplyDeleteThat is a good quantification of SPX.
ReplyDeleteI think you are very close to reality.
After the first days of the next week there are a few more days of the week of Jun 28 to Jul 2 which may create some move. By all means something does not seem right next week and we should expect some vital news that may not be very positive in next 10/12 days.
I hope to post some more later this weekend or early next week.
My question is does it make more sense to go with indices or specific stocks.
Meanwhile I am looking for assets that may do well while the broader markets weaken.
Hope to hear more from you.
Have a good weekend!!
Yes BDI is very much subject to the moves by Commodity buyers in China and Europe lately specially since past 2 years. I think Chinese authorities who regulate all big buyers of commodities being the state companies, have decided to put a stop to buying in an attempt to control the overheating of their economy plus to reduce the commodity prices specially of metals.
ReplyDeleteI expect a new set of major issues that will appear in news around 3rd week of July, these "events" may be much bigger than Greece, PIIGS or BP spill. I just pray that we can survive the critical times specially during the summer.
More later..
After a few false start finally the CBOE Group's IPO was launched this week.
ReplyDeleteMost of these corporate executives do not know anything when to start a business and that is why you will see that a majority of businesses started with great fanfare fail.
I could help any business to find an optimum date for launch for absolute success. Will be analyzing CBOE alongwith a few more new recent IPOs.
I just pray that GM launches its IPO after Sept.
Hey astral, do you see anything in november as being life altering, like 9-11 or something along that magnitude? specifically nov. 8-11th or 12th? Either general or market related, or both perhaps...
ReplyDeletethird week of july huh...what might you be seeing? something that is in relation to the total solar eclipse on the 11th? 8.0 earthquake? or hurricane that take the oil deep inland? or maybe overseas, a little israel iran dance that get's started. so many options...bigger than BP, is hard though, considering that the effects are only in there infancy, and will be around for years to come!
ReplyDeleteI dont have real bearish view on markets like Glen, but I think a combination of BP not controlling the leak and/or relief well measures fail combined with Europe/Euro problems resurfacing can create major league fear and negative headlines for the markets, day after day.... as i said, still sticking with 150-200 points move. 900-925 or 1300-1325.
ReplyDeleteUNlike financial troubles, where the negative headlines were solved with "$1tn bailout" "$800bn bailout", the BP leak, unfortunately cannot be controlled by Bernanke or the fed with bailouts....
ReplyDeleteHello Glen
ReplyDeleteThe events of July will be related to Taxation, bubbles and a few other economy and nature related ones.
For now I can tell you that I have not analyzed November but Financial markets would have 2 big mega mergers and then some key events during summer and Dec.
I am now thinking of writing a series on world events as I have many requests and suggestions from interested parties and Media. I had published brief forecasts for 2000 and 2001 at a website that are still there.
The problem with pinpointed forecasting is that we do not want nor should we be the forebearers of doom or similar. We all love expansion and wellbeing but hardly anyone wants to know the disasters and similar.
However the people managing very large enterprises and countries, regions must know some facts so that they can plan out better. But our stupid world believes in today and not tommorrow and that is why we have misery around the world.
I have provided a few key events but believe or not people do not believe before things really happen so I was reluctant to share.
But considering the extreme events going to happen from this summer on till 2013 we must do something to warn the responsible people.
There are competent experts in geo-cosmic events but they do not expose their knowledge for our world is ruled by morons unfortunately currently for past long time.
Non the less the outcome, I am trying to study individually each geo-econo-political entities and draft few key events for each and then disclose some key events that will shake our world.
Now coming back to your very intelligent question for now what you see in Nov this year I have not yet analyzed the correlation of Nov with other key dates. If you are asking about the context of a particular area like North America we can discuss that.
For now I can say very briefly that SOUTH ASIA will be focus of extreme events in August this year or the events of 2nd to 4th week of Aug that will happen will cause extremely powerful events that can involve something very big.
I have been trying to check the latitude and key hours/dates of these events and their literal translation. Once done they will be published on a website of similar name.
Many key media outlets ask each year in Dec to give them forecasts for the year. I decided not to do so for they are not taken seriously.
But frankly I am now compelled to do something as we are going to enter extreme critical events from now that will include nuclear, wars, extreme terror events and very wide scale natural catastrophes. We must do something on an urgent basis to contribute positively.
I feel very sad that we are sitting on the explosives and most people are complacent and worried about minor events.
The big war that is foreseen will destroy many economies and I see closure of many or large number of stock exchanges but this will not happen this year.
The shakeup of next years is part of a chain that will only end on short term in 2013.
Greg and Glen
ReplyDeleteI wrote a long reply using firefox browser and the blogspot [google] server destroyed that post and gave an error which is happening more and more. I will try to rewrite the stuff again. But it is a pity the whole thing is lost. When you post before clicking the post comment please do a copy command by control A and save that in your memory for many times the posting function goes into error.
Astral - thanks for sharing your insights ... also want to ask you for your thoughts on Indian stock mkt over this year since you mentioned South Asia ...
ReplyDeleteAS2009
Hello AS2009
ReplyDeleteWell thank you for being interested in knowing more. I have not done any work as yet on Indian Stock market except a quick review I do on key Asian Markets. As you know most markets are inter connected and they share the similar energy and Indian stocks are not very different but they are slightly better performing than China and Japan this year. I will however post a more detailed analysis on specific markets as I see it could interest more readers.
What I mentioned above is an extreme event I foresee with center of it being South and South Western Asia that expands from Persian gulf, Afghan hills and the plains and mountains of India and Pakistan. I see a very major event that could shock the world and India could be a victim most probably for there is extreme complacency there with a government and leadership that is literally dormant.
Whenver this event reppears on cyclic basis something big happens.
But the events of August will also impact the whole world unless something is done in advance and the concerned leaders wake up. Will get back on that.
Hey Astral,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the wonderful response. To be more specific about the Nov time frame, I am thinking on a global scale where the impacts of this event are felt across the planet. Intuitively I think it has to do with the sun (i.e. a coronal mass injection). And by watching the news one would be let to believe that it is a nuclear event somewhere in the middle east. That is what main stream media is trying to portray at least. Not to be trusted obviously, but, the nuclear part seems to be in the cards somewhere...this nuclear event would likely spark world war 3, and many lives will be lost. Famine and water will be an issue i am sure aswell, as this oil, and weather (floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, and colder temperatures) will lead to less food come this fall and winter.
If you would like to take these ideas and see what you come up with, that would be great. No need to see any of these situations as "bad", but rather things to be aware of and prepared for. Having a child has made me much more aware of the world i live in, so as to ensure the survival of my boy!
Hey Astral,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the wonderful response. To be more specific about the Nov time frame, I am thinking on a global scale where the impacts of this event are felt across the planet. Intuitively I think it has to do with the sun (i.e. a coronal mass injection). And by watching the news one would be let to believe that it is a nuclear event somewhere in the middle east. That is what main stream media is trying to portray at least. Not to be trusted obviously, but, the nuclear part seems to be in the cards somewhere...this nuclear event would likely spark world war 3, and many lives will be lost. Famine and water will be an issue i am sure aswell, as this oil, and weather (floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, and colder temperatures) will lead to less food come this fall and winter.
If you would like to take these ideas and see what you come up with, that would be great. No need to see any of these situations as "bad", but rather things to be aware of and prepared for. Having a child has made me much more aware of the world i live in, so as to ensure the survival of my boy!
Sorry about double post, did not think it went through.
ReplyDeleteDear Glen
ReplyDeleteThe brief hint on my reading I give is absolutely accurate and confirmed by many other studies. The potential war in Aug is imminent, unless some people wake up and take wiser decisions things will escalate probably.
This will keep on till 2013 in some form or other.
Besides the droughts, Eco disasters in some places are imminent shortly.
The biggest challenge will be all this would be sudden and without much notice.
Now how the markets will take it is another issue yet on market I have some extremely important vital reading as what I see is not something easy to believe. If I write today people will never believe us.
But I am going to do some more precision work and see if I can offer at least my readers and friends reading this blog should benefit enormously if they follow this blog with some logic of their own.
An executive of Baltic Exchange wrote me today with a vital information I needed for which I want to thank this gentleman Bill for his kind help.
Today is going as expected and I wonder how many people will be trapped by the Bullish sentiment. Today evening later things will begin to change and those who buy will be reconsidering their positions but would wait till Tuesday.
Please stay tuned.
I clearly wrote perhaps replying to Yushan that BP stock is not ripe to buy but so many great experts asked their subscribers to go grab it asap and now someone wrote me that he lost much of his option value.
ReplyDeleteI had clearly written to be careful of BP as it may faintly do some move from 22nd but I will have to reconfirm that.
Hello Glen If you read this message pl suggest me if you think BDI advances or follows the general market? I am finding a very interesting correlation here.
ReplyDeleteJust for active day traders. Today at 340 pm est or 2.40 pm cst there could be a minor move that could be watched.
ReplyDeleteHey Astral,
ReplyDeletethere is nothing that you could possibly write that would sound impossible...even, if it is that the markets are going to zero...there are long term patterns that suggest prices close to zero...like the dow has a head and shoulders pattern that is almost 20 years old...neckline is around the 8000 level, top of head is 14,100...so that would give us a target of 900 or so.
i think the bdi leads the markets...it is a forward looking indicator of what commerce is doing in terms of shipments to and from ports...so if bdi is down, one has to assume that the demand is lower...which can only lead to deflation and lower stock prices in general...
similar to copper as an industrial necessatiy for building stuff...copper down, suggests less demand, which obviously suggests a slowing in growth.
tmw should be relatively flat before the fed meeting that will be annouced on wednesday afternoon.
Dear Glen
ReplyDeleteThanks bro. I just wanted your view:) I agree and I have been following BDI and now I am doing a few long term back tests to see a few factors.
What I see ahead only confirms what we have been talking.
I am going to do an extensive close study of BDI and Copper too. Besides my ongoing study of mundane affairs affecting countries and regions.
My question is how are you going to play this market and what is your timing?
Are you already short on some assets or just plain indices?
Astral,
ReplyDeleteI am going to play it with spy and qqqq put options...i really want to see spx trade below 1093.75 for confirmation...then i think we see 1031.25 shortly thereafter...then 980 or so...to make me think other wise will have to be a close above 1156.25, in which case i will be looking for a double top or 1250. so right now for me this chop chop zone...break 1093.75 for short, and 1156.25 for long...either one is going to be a good options play that i will hold till said targets are reached.
Thank you Glen. I am with you. For now 1156 may not be possible if things go exponentially weaker. If we go by probability the probability of going down is higher from todays high or a potential weak positive day of Wed. Tuesday looks extremely strange day.
ReplyDeleteIf technicals confirm we will know by Wednesday close the next course.
I am going to do a closer look but even if the few days of next week are upbeat they dont look to form any momentum.
SpX and NDX or spy/qqqq is very obviously a good idea.
I have a few very professional friends who have proven to me that instead of popular indexes if we select few popular confirmed stocks we can do better.
So for that I am going to run a study of few key stocks either leaders or correlated with some commodity eg. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GS, C, FCX, SLB, HAL and certainly a dozen more.
Last time when I was studying in April and I saw the weakness of May nobody believed me and I dint really do anything because I was involved with a few commodities that I watch.
There are many other ETFs too that could be interesting.
I think a few key commodities that go inverse to broad markets are also good to study. Will get more on this shortly.
Astral,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update!! No nonsense as usual...
Regards,
Mark
I second opinion of Mbeider and Glen.
ReplyDeleteYou hit the nail at the right spot! precise, concise and to the point. Without iffy and butties:)
FWIW I like a no nonsense blog.
ReplyDeleteThank you very much friends. Thank you Mark and Rachel.
ReplyDeleteGin believe me your opinion is very worthy as you may think it is not but our views are formed by years of experience.
What I believe is that we must shed the experiences that failed us or rather not go with setups or tricks that did not work in past. If something has failed in past very probably it will do so in future.
That said I think we must constantly learn, de-learn and then adapt new views as fast as we can. Timing is the KEY to this market.
Regardless what you trade, if you make retarded decisions or misjudge out of doubt, but your timing is ok you may still survive. But if we misread and on top timing has gaps we are doomed.
I think 17th close or 21st Morning was a good time to decide but doubts are always there. We appear to gone into a clear direction now and 23rd may have some up side move most probably at later hour.
Overall time from 18th to 28th is pretty negative as I had posted last week.
Now for intermediate term what I posted on my previous few blogs it is literally confirmed. We are going to enter into a very difficult period of economy and politically unstable times in next few months. More on this coming shortly!!
Astral,
ReplyDeletecan you comment on the "Grand Cross in a Grand Square" that is going on this weekend, and perhaps what the consequences on the markets have been in the past...any details would be greatly appreciated.
Dear Glen
ReplyDeletePlease know that never believe the myths or what commonly people talk. A grand square or all such combinations must be studied in their due context of past 60 or 180 days and same way of future days. We can never be sure that if one pattern is there we can have a specific significance of an event!! Why. Because if that was the case this would be so easy and just any computer can give us the outcome.
We live in a constantly dynamic, changing and evolving universe. The past patterns do repeat but the context and circumstances or timing is different, hence each aspect must be translated in its own unique state.
I do not worry about one particular event nor should we do. Why. See and try read a long TIME like 60 or 180 days and then we can project smaller time frames.
Unfortunately many people interpret so distortingly because of lack of grander vision that instead of being precise and correct they just write based on a past pattern.
I look at each time frame with a totally fresh view. Consider this a voyage. We can never have the same experience even if we took the same voyage again and again. Each will have a new fresher experience.
Likewise future is unlike past yet a few similar things will be there.
Future of our life, actions and all around us is subject to our internal base of evolution. I can never write or vision a future unless I get multiple confirmations from not only past but from my internal base. Despite all each moment, hour, day and week, month is literally pre-written and we are programmed to reach our destination. We can only modify tastes, colors and minor things. The greater pattern is all set in a fluid but it becomes firm after WE cross this "time" yet unfortunately time is merely an illusion yet essential to form our evolution.
Astral,
ReplyDeleteStock market aside... Are you a student of Lamaism, Buddhism, or related teachings? What is one to read/study/do so one can improve himself?
Please feel free to email if you feel this is too much off topic.
Best Regards,
-Mark
Dear Mark
ReplyDeleteI am a student of Human life on Earth and for that we must study all studies done by human mind as yet. Since I did not get much answer for future I study other exoteric and futurological sciences that are usually very subtle and spiritual in nature so I study literally all yet you can find answers in our own mind field they come to us each day but we are too occupied by our overpowering emotions. Please write when you have time for more discussion or post here anytime. Buddhism or any other life philosophy is beautiful but it doesnt or cant answer our quest for future. For that I rely on nature, geo-cosmic timing and our collective mind field. I see past as clearly as future and frankly we are still a savage "civilization" trying to be civilized on spirit level. Physically we are primates but we pretend to be better equipped for a certain order we have but believe or not we are still just one of the species living in a wonderland. Yet we are still evolving and in few hundred years we will be reaching a higher level point. Perhaps in next 2 lives we should see a fascinating world on this planet.
hello Astra, your comment on the oil has been great~~ i just wonder today's oil price does not show much weakness compared to the market index... do you still expect a fall in oil price and index from tomorrow?
ReplyDelete(the market is acting very confusing the recent 2 weeks...)
thank you very much for your valuable input.
Astral...where did you go? what are you up to...aside waiting for the cardinal climax coming aug. 1st? make any trades today? see any nice set-ups for the rest of the week?
ReplyDeleteHello Dear Glen Good evening
ReplyDeleteSorry I have been away for a short while. I have been doing some work and I find very interesting results. Well for me Aug is too far:) We have plenty to handle in July.
I will try to post a quick blog asap with a reading. I will suggest to cover shorts around next 1st possibly.
I am bit perplexed on first 2 weeks of July but it appears to be interesting time most probably a consolidation in a range.
I will suggest not to go long on Yellow metal for a week unless a futures day trade.
Will try to get back asap!!